主题：Crowding-in or Crowding-out? Revisiting the Fiscal Multiplier under Fiscal Foresight
主讲人：郭俊杰（中央财经大学）
主持人：李霄阳（太阳城集团）
会议形式：腾讯会议（ID：570-688-512 密码：220624）
会议时间：2022年6月24日（周五）9：00-10：00
摘要
In this paper, we revise the conventional present-value fiscal multiplier under fiscal foresight (news) and quantify the government spending multiplier. Our revised fiscal multiplier nests the conventional one when there is no fiscal foresight and yields larger values under fiscal foresight. This is because the conventional present-value fiscal multiplier fails to take into account the crowding-in effects before the government spending shock realizes and therefore underestimates the size of multiplier. We also show that the size of revised fiscal multiplier depends on the foresight intensity as well as how noisy the fiscal signal is. Overall, our results suggest that the fiscal policy is more effective under fiscal foresight and the fiscal authorities should reduce the noise when announcing fiscal policy decisions.
主讲人简介
郭俊杰，中央财经大学金融学院助理教授，分别于2020年和2014年获得美国印第安纳大学的经济学博士学位以及中国人民大学的金融学学士学位。郭俊杰博士的研究领域是货币财政政策、宏观金融以及实证宏观，在《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《经济学动态》以及《Journal of Applied Econometrics》等国内外重要期刊发表过多篇论文并主持一项国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目。
